Presidential Political Predictions

As the 2012 election season heats up and President Obama’s approval numbers continue to plummet, I have had friends and colleagues ask whether or not I thought that the President would be re-elected next year.  If it was a simple yes or no answer, then everyone would already know the answer; since it is not I believe it would be best to review the facts first before making a decision.

In 2008, President Obama campaigned and won the Presidency promising everything from restoring international respect for our country to calming the seas and ending “Global Warming”.  He promised to shutdown Guantanamo Bay, but yet it remains open.  He promised to bring all troops home from Iraq within 12 months of his inauguration, but yet there are still troops there and they are scheduled to return home on President Bush’s timeline.  He promised to win the war in Afghanistan, but yet Afghanistan is still as dangerous as ever.  He promised to turn the economy around, but yet the economy is in worse shape than when he was inaugurated.  He promised to end the divide in Washington DC and bring the country back together, but yet we are just as divided if not more so.  He promised to bring unemployment down, but yet we have hovered around 9% for the majority of his tenure. 

These are just a few of the broken promises of the current administration.  Before I am assailed for holding the President to an unfair standard, allow me to point out that these are his promises not my assumption.  His die-hard supporters will point out that he inherited this mess from President Bush and it takes time to turn things around.  My question to the Kool Aid drinking lackeys is, “when does this economy, war, problem become Obama’s problem?”  He has been in office for 3 years and things have only gotten worse. 

Too be fair, a few promises that the President made he has seen to fruition.  He promised to overhaul our health care system, but it is a huge over step of federal authority.  It is wildly expensive, does nothing to address the cost of health care, and will ultimately decrease the quality of care.  He promised to change our energy policy to increase our use of renewable resources, but yet we are more dependent on foreign oil than ever before.  His administration has subsidized solar companies that have since been proven as frauds.  They have subsidized electric car companies that are either not even in the United States or build cars that the public simply does not want to buy.

With this track record and public sentiment turning against a second term, you would think that the environment would be right for a landslide victory for a Republican nominee.  The problem with that theory is that the Republican elite seem to always find a way to shoot themselves in the foot before they ever leave the starting gate.  Don’t misunderstand, I do believe that the President is very vulnerable and by all rights should be soundly beaten in the election next fall, but the Republican power brokers seem petrified of nominating anyone that may have the slightest bit of conservatism coursing through their veins.  They seem to believe that if they just nominate the right liberal republican the public will rush to the polls to vote for them.  Look at who they pushed to the forefront last election.  I truly believe that if the Republicans nominate another McCain-like candidate, we will all be forced to suffer through another 4 years of an Obama administration.  The only way to defeat Obama in the next election is to run a candidate that not only has heard of the Constitution but actually believes in what our founding fathers actually knew what they were writing.